American Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): ECU, Temple, Tulsa
Trending Down (Efficiency): Memphis, USF, Tulane, Wichita State, Charlotte

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1459.3 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.68 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

ECU

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1503.2 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.09 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

FAU

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1582.3 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.04 (ranked 149 of 365)

Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).

Memphis

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1678.4 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.45 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

North Texas

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1616.5 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.76 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Rice

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1425.8 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.47 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Temple

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1504.9 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.40 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Tulane

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1530.1 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.37 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Tulsa

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1460.3 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.26 (ranked 115 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

UAB

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1596.4 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.29 (ranked 155 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

USF

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1489.5 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.50 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UTSA

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1420.0 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.88 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Wichita State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1539.1 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.01 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC American

TagsAAC American American Conference