MAAC Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The MAAC enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Iona, Siena
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Canisius, Fairfield, Manhattan, Marist, Niagara
Team-by-Team Analysis
Canisius
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1359.2 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.34 (ranked 350 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Fairfield
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1466.7 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.58 (ranked 205 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Iona
Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1540.1 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.25 (ranked 148 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Manhattan
Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1464.5 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.47 (ranked 288 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Marist
Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1527.2 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.78 (ranked 98 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Merrimack
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1521.3 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.13 (ranked 266 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Mt St Mary’s
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1523.3 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.91 (ranked 249 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Niagara
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1445.1 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.68 (ranked 232 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Quinnipiac
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1540.1 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.18 (ranked 314 of 365)
Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).
Rider
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1467.6 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.50 (ranked 346 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Sacred Heart
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1446.3 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.05 (ranked 304 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Siena
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1443.3 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.21 (ranked 117 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
St Peter’s
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1475.5 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.95 (ranked 296 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
