MEAC Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The MEAC enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Morgan State
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Coppin State, Delaware State, Howard, MD-E Shore, Norfolk State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Coppin State
Record: 0-6 | Elo: 1302.6 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.54 (ranked 363 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Delaware State
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1408.6 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.20 (ranked 352 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Howard
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1416.0 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.85 (ranked 331 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
MD-E Shore
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1324.0 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.59 (ranked 362 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Morgan State
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1387.0 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.73 (ranked 311 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
NC Central
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1417.4 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.95 (ranked 355 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Norfolk State
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1532.2 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.11 (ranked 265 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
S Carolina St
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1462.0 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.43 (ranked 361 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As MEAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
