Northeast Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Northeast enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Wagner, Stonehill
Trending Down (Efficiency): Cent Conn St, Fair Dickinson, Brooklyn, St Francis (PA), Le Moyne

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1457.1 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.06 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Cent Conn St

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1555.3 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.81 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Chicago State

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1323.4 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.68 (ranked 342 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1404.1 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.60 (ranked 333 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Le Moyne

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1372.8 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.07 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Mercyhurst

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1400.2 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.97 (ranked 203 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

New Haven

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1515.1 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.37 (ranked 298 of 365)

Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).

St Francis (PA)

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1409.9 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.90 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Stonehill

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1377.4 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.97 (ranked 150 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wagner

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1419.6 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.54 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Northeast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC

TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference