Big Sky Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Sky enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): E Washington, Idaho State, Sacramento St
Trending Down (Efficiency): Idaho, Montana, Montana State, N Arizona, N Colorado

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1426.7 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.85 (ranked 196 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Idaho

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1425.2 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.62 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Idaho State

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1456.2 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.70 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Montana

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1591.5 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.33 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Montana State

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1459.3 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.78 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

N Arizona

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1446.5 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.75 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

N Colorado

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1569.6 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.46 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Portland State

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1480.5 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.14 (ranked 203 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Sacramento St

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1338.1 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.33 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Weber State

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1426.7 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.44 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC

TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference