MEAC Update: Week 2
November 19, 2025The MEAC enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Coppin State, Delaware State, Howard, MD-E Shore, Morgan State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Coppin State
Record: 0-6 | Elo: 1302.7 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.54 (ranked 363 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Delaware State
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1408.6 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.20 (ranked 354 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Howard
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1416.0 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.85 (ranked 334 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
MD-E Shore
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1324.0 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.59 (ranked 362 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Morgan State
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1387.0 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.73 (ranked 314 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
NC Central
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1417.4 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.95 (ranked 358 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Norfolk State
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1532.2 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.11 (ranked 266 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
S Carolina St
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1462.0 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.43 (ranked 361 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As MEAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
