Missouri Valley Update: Week 2
November 19, 2025The Missouri Valley enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): S Illinois, Murray State
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Bradley, Drake, Evansville, Illinois State, Indiana State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Belmont
Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1597.0 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.39 (ranked 96 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Bradley
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1595.1 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.75 (ranked 186 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Drake
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1663.6 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.31 (ranked 201 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Evansville
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1423.8 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.34 (ranked 293 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- 3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Illinois State
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1531.5 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.88 (ranked 167 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Indiana State
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1522.1 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.07 (ranked 225 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Murray State
Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1512.8 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.42 (ranked 94 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Northern Iowa
Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1577.8 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.72 (ranked 70 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
S Illinois
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1495.9 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.40 (ranked 95 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
UIC
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1489.2 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.40 (ranked 126 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Valparaiso
Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1458.1 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.17 (ranked 193 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
