Mountain West Update: Week 2
November 19, 2025The Mountain West enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, UNLV
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Air Force
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1324.2 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.08 (ranked 330 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Boise State
Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1646.1 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.68 (ranked 75 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Colorado State
Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1669.8 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.12 (ranked 18 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Fresno State
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1393.2 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.64 (ranked 179 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Grand Canyon
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1619.6 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.60 (ranked 112 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Nevada
Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1561.9 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.55 (ranked 139 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
New Mexico
Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1646.3 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.18 (ranked 100 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
San Diego State
Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1639.0 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.86 (ranked 38 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
San Jose State
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1445.4 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.98 (ranked 216 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
UNLV
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1557.7 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.27 (ranked 114 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Utah State
Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1668.0 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.75 (ranked 58 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Wyoming
Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1467.6 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.60 (ranked 104 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
