Northeast Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Northeast enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Brooklyn, Wagner, Chicago State, Mercyhurst, New Haven
Trending Down (Efficiency): Cent Conn St, Fair Dickinson, St Francis (PA), Stonehill, Le Moyne

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1457.1 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.06 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Cent Conn St

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1547.0 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.02 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Chicago State

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1323.4 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.68 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1404.1 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.60 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Le Moyne

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1372.8 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.07 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Mercyhurst

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1400.2 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.97 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

New Haven

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1523.4 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.37 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

St Francis (PA)

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1409.9 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.90 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Stonehill

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1377.3 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.97 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wagner

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1412.6 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.77 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Northeast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC

TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference