Sun Belt Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Ga Southern, Troy, UL Monroe, Marshall, Old Dominion
Trending Down (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1525.5 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.93 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Arkansas State

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1581.5 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.41 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

C. Carolina

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1370.5 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.01 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ga Southern

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1483.8 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.07 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Georgia State

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1425.6 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.20 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

James Madison

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1516.6 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.38 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Louisiana

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1443.4 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.72 (ranked 319 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Marshall

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1540.0 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.17 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Old Dominion

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1434.3 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.55 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

South Alabama

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1560.0 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.10 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Southern Miss

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1394.9 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.06 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Texas State

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1485.1 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.14 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Troy

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1578.9 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.36 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UL Monroe

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1337.9 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.20 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference