Atlantic 10 Update: Week 3

Atlantic 10 Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1522.3 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.17 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Dayton

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1636.3 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.19 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Duquesne

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1513.9 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.43 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Fordham

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1440.0 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.43 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

G Washington

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1550.9 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.09 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

George Mason

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1638.1 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.09 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

La Salle

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1451.4 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.51 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1542.9 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.33 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Richmond

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1492.7 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.03 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1547.0 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.38 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Saint Louis

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1562.5 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.11 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

St Bonaventure

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1591.9 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.57 (ranked 92 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

URI

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1498.7 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.88 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

VCU

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1645.5 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.51 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10
TagsAtlantic 10 Conference

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