Big Sky Update: Week 3

Big Sky Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Sky enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1417.4 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.48 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Idaho

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1425.2 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.83 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Idaho State

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1452.2 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.17 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Montana

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1570.0 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.85 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Montana State

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1469.8 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.21 (ranked 156 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

N Arizona

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1453.9 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.48 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

N Colorado

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1573.3 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.23 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Portland State

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1486.5 (ranked 204 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.40 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Sacramento St

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1332.2 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.71 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Weber State

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1423.4 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.18 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC
TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference

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