SWAC Update: Week 3

SWAC Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The SWAC enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 0-8 | Elo: 1299.1 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.69 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Alabama A&M

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1376.3 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.46 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Alabama State

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1466.6 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.57 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Alcorn State

Record: 0-7 | Elo: 1415.0 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.37 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1475.3 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.69 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Florida A&M

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1388.7 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.41 (ranked 363 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Grambling

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1427.5 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.34 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Jackson State

Record: 0-6 | Elo: 1458.3 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.38 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Miss Valley St

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1231.1 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.23 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

PV A&M

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1323.9 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.48 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Southern

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1481.7 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.65 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Texas Southern

Record: 0-5 | Elo: 1436.2 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.84 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SWAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC
TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC

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