Missouri Valley Update: Week 4

Missouri Valley Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1628.3 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.68 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bradley

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1610.5 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.75 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Drake

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1666.8 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.99 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Evansville

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1415.9 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.33 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Illinois State

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1553.8 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.52 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Indiana State

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1514.8 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.51 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Murray State

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1514.8 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.02 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Northern Iowa

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1589.4 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.75 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

S Illinois

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1494.8 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.73 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UIC

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1483.0 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.09 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Valparaiso

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1463.1 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.79 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

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