Sun Belt Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): UL Monroe, James Madison, Marshall, Old Dominion, Southern Miss
Trending Down (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Ga Southern, Georgia State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1498.2 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.85 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Arkansas State

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1582.8 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.33 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

C. Carolina

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1397.8 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.46 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Ga Southern

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1457.2 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.29 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia State

Record: 1-7 | Elo: 1403.4 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.26 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1539.2 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.13 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisiana

Record: 1-7 | Elo: 1417.5 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.19 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1533.6 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.06 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Old Dominion

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1421.3 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.55 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Alabama

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1574.6 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.65 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Southern Miss

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1418.3 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.39 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas State

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1477.4 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.64 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Troy

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1578.8 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.42 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UL Monroe

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1320.2 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -32.35 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference