SEC Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky
Trending Down (Efficiency): Florida, Miss St, Oklahoma

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1719.3 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.30 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Arkansas

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1606.4 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.40 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1732.8 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.65 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Florida

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1734.2 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.23 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1590.8 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.74 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1639.1 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.15 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

LSU

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1542.6 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.35 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miss St

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1560.4 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.55 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1592.3 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.51 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1580.2 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.15 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ole Miss

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1607.9 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.11 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1516.8 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.92 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Tennessee

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1722.2 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.39 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1582.3 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.87 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1631.1 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.25 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Vanderbilt

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1614.5 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.72 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC

TagsSEC Southeastern Conference