Southland Update: Week 4

Southland Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1370.6 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.33 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1420.4 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.86 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lamar

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1506.3 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.70 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

McNeese

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1636.1 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.13 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

New Orleans

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1329.0 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.28 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Nicholls

Record: 0-6 | Elo: 1476.8 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.82 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1422.7 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.41 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

SE Louisiana

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1467.7 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.65 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1483.7 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.62 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1471.5 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.96 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1364.2 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.19 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1406.4 (ranked 304 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.84 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC
TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference

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