Missouri Valley Update: Week 5

Missouri Valley Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1623.6 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.09 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Bradley

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1617.3 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.31 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Drake

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1654.3 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.88 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Evansville

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1418.5 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.55 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Illinois State

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1561.2 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.62 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Indiana State

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1518.2 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.74 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Murray State

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1523.8 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.09 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Northern Iowa

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1574.9 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.17 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

S Illinois

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1510.8 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.35 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UIC

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1463.5 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.05 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Valparaiso

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1459.1 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.08 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

Leave a Reply