Mountain West Update: Week 5

Mountain West Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mountain West enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1326.8 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.56 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1635.8 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.35 (ranked 92 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Colorado State

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1657.4 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.93 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Fresno State

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1401.6 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.33 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Grand Canyon

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1609.9 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.68 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Nevada

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1576.1 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.85 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

New Mexico

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1652.7 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.85 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1623.5 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.13 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

San Jose State

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1453.2 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.12 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNLV

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1553.6 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.59 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Utah State

Record: 8-1 | Elo: 1677.0 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.29 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wyoming

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1479.8 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.57 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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