Southland Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, New Orleans, Nicholls, Northwestern St
Trending Down (Efficiency): McNeese, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M-CC, Lamar, UT Rio Grande

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1379.9 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.36 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1427.4 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.05 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Lamar

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1497.3 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.80 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

McNeese

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1625.9 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.63 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

New Orleans

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1315.6 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.70 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Nicholls

Record: 1-7 | Elo: 1479.4 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.06 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1433.6 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.29 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SE Louisiana

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1453.6 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.47 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1492.0 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.95 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1485.2 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.36 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1370.4 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.13 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1409.5 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.14 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference