Southern Update: Week 5
December 8, 2025The Southern enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: December 01 – December 07, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): ETSU, Furman, Mercer, The Citadel, W Carolina
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Chattanooga, Samford, UNCG, VMI, Wofford
Team-by-Team Analysis
Chattanooga
Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1591.7 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.47 (ranked 290 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
ETSU
Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1551.9 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.68 (ranked 90 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Furman
Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1573.6 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.81 (ranked 216 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Mercer
Record: 7-2 | Elo: 1498.8 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.72 (ranked 151 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Samford
Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1566.0 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.18 (ranked 288 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
The Citadel
Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1266.6 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -37.83 (ranked 365 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
UNCG
Record: 2-8 | Elo: 1492.5 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.66 (ranked 314 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
VMI
Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1364.7 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.71 (ranked 352 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
W Carolina
Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1424.3 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.16 (ranked 321 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Wofford
Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1533.1 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.49 (ranked 276 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
