Atlantic 10 Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 08 – December 14, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Davidson, Dayton, Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason
Trending Down (Efficiency): G Washington, Saint Joe’s, Saint Louis, VCU, Loyola-Chicago

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1526.2 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.53 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Dayton

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1630.1 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.25 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Duquesne

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1497.1 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.00 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Fordham

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1440.3 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.40 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

G Washington

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1535.0 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.86 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

George Mason

Record: 10-1 | Elo: 1649.1 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.87 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

La Salle

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1430.0 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.18 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1518.0 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.61 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Richmond

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1521.6 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.11 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1559.4 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.02 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Saint Louis

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1586.4 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.38 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Bonaventure

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1602.8 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.78 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

URI

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1509.6 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.46 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

VCU

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1639.3 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.18 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Atlantic 10 Conference