Mountain West Update: Week 6

Mountain West Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mountain West enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1326.8 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.00 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1652.0 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.61 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Colorado State

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1660.3 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.06 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Fresno State

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1397.0 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.48 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Grand Canyon

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1612.9 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.32 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Nevada

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1581.5 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.58 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

New Mexico

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1668.9 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.76 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1627.8 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.77 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Jose State

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1448.1 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.56 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1538.9 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.75 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Utah State

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1683.8 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.22 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wyoming

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1486.5 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.77 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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