Ohio Valley Update: Week 6

Ohio Valley Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Ohio Valley enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ohio Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Illinois

Record: 1-8 | Elo: 1366.7 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.33 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Lindenwood

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1439.5 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.91 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Little Rock

Record: 2-8 | Elo: 1443.6 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.55 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Morehead State

Record: 3-7 | Elo: 1437.1 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.71 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

SE Missouri St

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1467.5 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.14 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

SIUE

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1510.5 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.24 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Southern Indiana

Record: 3-7 | Elo: 1338.3 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.68 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Tenn Tech

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1409.5 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.32 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tennessee St

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1492.9 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.88 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UT Martin

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1468.8 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.92 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

W Illinois

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1387.9 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.01 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ohio Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryOVC
TagsOhio Valley Ohio Valley Conference OVC

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