SEC Update: Week 6

December 15, 2025 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 6 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 08 – December 14, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Miss St
Trending Down (Efficiency): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1716.8 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.13 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 8-2 | Elo: 1630.7 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.73 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1734.2 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.26 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Florida

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1722.9 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.82 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1611.0 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.77 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1628.4 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.39 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

LSU

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1559.0 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.90 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Miss St

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1571.6 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.06 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1583.3 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.16 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1592.0 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.49 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Ole Miss

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1592.7 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.20 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

South Carolina

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1511.1 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.83 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Tennessee

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1697.5 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.41 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1570.6 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.29 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas A&M

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1634.6 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.90 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 10-0 | Elo: 1624.3 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.98 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC

TagsSEC Southeastern Conference