Mid-American Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 15 – December 21, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Cent Michigan, Kent State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Ball State, E Michigan, N Illinois, Ohio

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1645.5 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.19 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ball State

Record: 3-9 | Elo: 1395.7 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.10 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bowling Green

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1489.1 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.23 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1455.1 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.72 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cent Michigan

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1417.0 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.43 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

E Michigan

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1467.4 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.95 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kent State

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1606.8 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.40 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami (OH)

Record: 12-0 | Elo: 1616.0 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.92 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

N Illinois

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1351.0 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.47 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1483.3 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.72 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Toledo

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1520.8 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.17 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UMass

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1477.8 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.70 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

W Michigan

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1431.3 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.26 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC

TagsMAC Mid-American Conference