Horizon Update: Week 8

Horizon Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1459.0 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.71 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1352.9 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.78 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Green Bay

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1372.8 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.41 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

IUPUI

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1304.9 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.70 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1536.7 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.87 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

N Kentucky

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1509.2 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.91 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oakland

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1535.1 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.81 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1518.6 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.89 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Robert Morris

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1573.8 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.28 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1453.2 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.97 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Youngstown St

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1544.0 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.10 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ

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