Patriot League Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 22 – December 28, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Army, Boston U, Lafayette, Lehigh, Loyola (MD)
Trending Down (Efficiency): American, Bucknell, Colgate, Holy Cross

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1498.3 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.33 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Army

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1429.1 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.09 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Boston U

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1438.4 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.94 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 3-10 | Elo: 1443.2 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.02 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Colgate

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1489.2 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.29 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Holy Cross

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1378.7 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.00 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lafayette

Record: 3-9 | Elo: 1362.3 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.04 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Lehigh

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1382.6 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.95 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1351.5 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.97 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Navy

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1476.2 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.68 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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