West Coast Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The West Coast enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for West Coast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 22 – December 28, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Gonzaga, Loyola Mary, Pacific, Pepperdine, San Diego
Trending Down (Efficiency): Portland, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco, Oregon State, Washington St

Team-by-Team Analysis

Gonzaga

Record: 13-1 | Elo: 1740.1 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.89 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Loyola Mary

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1502.4 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.88 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oregon State

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1491.6 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.00 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Pacific

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1405.6 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.06 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pepperdine

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1386.4 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.62 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Portland

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1418.8 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.43 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Saint Mary’s

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1716.3 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.52 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Diego

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1380.6 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.52 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

San Francisco

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1606.7 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.58 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Santa Clara

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1594.0 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.43 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Fouls Per Poss (Fouls Per Possession): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Seattle

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1544.0 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.22 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Washington St

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1509.8 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.11 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As West Coast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWCC

TagsWCC West Coast Conference