Week 9 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

Week 9: December 29 – January 05, 2026
Let’s count down this week’s ten most surprising results.

#10: Minnesota @ Northwestern

Final Score: Minnesota 84, Northwestern 78
Date: January 03, 2026
Venue: Minnesota @ Northwestern
Favorite: Northwestern (Ranked #39)
Underdog: Minnesota (Ranked #90)
Predicted Score: Northwestern 74.5 – 69.5 (5.0 points)
Upset Rating: 9.1

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Northwestern had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 2 fouled out
Rebounding: Minnesota 28, Northwestern 19 (9-rebound advantage)
Three-point shooting: Minnesota 6-18 (33%), Northwestern 6-23 (26%)
Two-point shooting: Minnesota 22-33 (67%), Northwestern 22-34 (65%)

#9: Belmont @ Indiana State

Final Score: Indiana State 81, Belmont 80
Date: December 29, 2025
Venue: Belmont @ Indiana State
Favorite: Belmont (Ranked #55)
Underdog: Indiana State (Ranked #175)
Predicted Score: Belmont 85.8 – 80.4 (5.4 points)
Upset Rating: 9.3

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Belmont had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
Free throws: Indiana State 13-26 (50%), Belmont 14-17 (82%)
Two-point shooting: Indiana State 16-31 (52%), Belmont 15-34 (44%)

#8: Quinnipiac @ Manhattan

Final Score: Manhattan 80, Quinnipiac 79
Date: January 02, 2026
Venue: Quinnipiac @ Manhattan
Favorite: Quinnipiac (Ranked #141)
Underdog: Manhattan (Ranked #316)
Predicted Score: Quinnipiac 80.0 – 75.8 (4.2 points)
Upset Rating: 9.4

Key Factors:

Two-point shooting: Manhattan 22-41 (54%), Quinnipiac 21-43 (49%)

#7: Wichita State @ Charlotte

Final Score: Charlotte 104, Wichita State 100
Date: January 03, 2026
Venue: Wichita State @ Charlotte
Favorite: Wichita State (Ranked #65)
Underdog: Charlotte (Ranked #144)
Predicted Score: Wichita State 78.6 – 72.1 (6.5 points)
Upset Rating: 10.9

Key Factors:

Bench scoring: Charlotte 62 points, Wichita State 23 points (39-point advantage)
Foul trouble: Wichita State had 3 players with 4+ fouls
Free throws: Charlotte 29-38 (76%), Wichita State 18-22 (82%)
Two-point shooting: Charlotte 21-37 (57%), Wichita State 26-49 (53%)

#6: Louisville @ Stanford

Final Score: Stanford 80, Louisville 76
Date: January 02, 2026
Venue: Louisville @ Stanford
Favorite: Louisville (Ranked #6)
Underdog: Stanford (Ranked #93)
Predicted Score: Louisville 78.4 – 71.7 (6.8 points)
Upset Rating: 13.3

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Louisville had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
Three-point shooting: Stanford 9-19 (47%), Louisville 6-27 (22%)
Free throws: Stanford 21-31 (68%), Louisville 18-21 (86%)

#5: Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown St

Final Score: Detroit Mercy 73, Youngstown St 68
Date: December 29, 2025
Venue: Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown St
Favorite: Youngstown St (Ranked #188)
Underdog: Detroit Mercy (Ranked #248)
Predicted Score: Youngstown St 81.0 – 68.1 (13.0 points)
Upset Rating: 17.8

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: Detroit Mercy 7-15 (47%), Youngstown St 10-38 (26%)
Two-point shooting: Detroit Mercy 17-41 (41%), Youngstown St 12-29 (41%)

#4: South Dakota St @ North Dakota

Final Score: North Dakota 90, South Dakota St 87
Date: January 03, 2026
Venue: South Dakota St @ North Dakota
Favorite: South Dakota St (Ranked #185)
Underdog: North Dakota (Ranked #299)
Predicted Score: South Dakota St 85.4 – 74.7 (10.7 points)
Upset Rating: 18.4

Key Factors:

Bench scoring: North Dakota 39 points, South Dakota St 10 points (29-point advantage)
Foul trouble: South Dakota St had 2 players with 4+ fouls
Rebounding: North Dakota 37, South Dakota St 28 (9-rebound advantage, 16 offensive)
Two-point shooting: North Dakota 19-32 (59%), South Dakota St 18-34 (53%)

#3: Utah Valley @ Abil Christian

Final Score: Abil Christian 85, Utah Valley 68
Date: January 03, 2026
Venue: Utah Valley @ Abil Christian
Favorite: Utah Valley (Ranked #108)
Underdog: Abil Christian (Ranked #263)
Predicted Score: Utah Valley 78.5 – 68.8 (9.6 points)
Upset Rating: 19.4

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Utah Valley had 2 players with 4+ fouls
Turnovers: Utah Valley 21, Abil Christian 10 (11-turnover disparity)
Two-point shooting: Abil Christian 29-50 (58%), Utah Valley 16-28 (57%)

#2: Florida @ Missouri

Final Score: Missouri 76, Florida 74
Date: January 03, 2026
Venue: Florida @ Missouri
Favorite: Florida (Ranked #23)
Underdog: Missouri (Ranked #88)
Predicted Score: Florida 89.7 – 76.4 (13.3 points)
Upset Rating: 25.1

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Florida had 3 players with 4+ fouls
Free throws: Missouri 18-30 (60%), Florida 15-20 (75%)
Three-point shooting: Missouri 8-22 (36%), Florida 7-27 (26%)

#1: UC San Diego @ Cal Poly

Final Score: Cal Poly 67, UC San Diego 65
Date: January 01, 2026
Venue: UC San Diego @ Cal Poly
Favorite: UC San Diego (Ranked #103)
Underdog: Cal Poly (Ranked #266)
Predicted Score: UC San Diego 88.8 – 69.4 (19.5 points)
Upset Rating: 40.5

Key Factors: