Big 12 Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 29 – January 04, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Cincinnati

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 14-0 | Elo: 1746.9 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.09 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1524.2 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.52 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

BYU

Record: 13-1 | Elo: 1713.9 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.36 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1632.9 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.64 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cincinnati

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1551.5 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.92 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Colorado

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1579.4 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.39 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Houston

Record: 13-1 | Elo: 1810.0 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.46 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 14-0 | Elo: 1722.9 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.74 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1657.2 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.23 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Blocks Per FGA (Blocks Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kansas State

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1556.8 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.05 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma State

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1588.3 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.40 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

TCU

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1588.9 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.52 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas Tech

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1695.6 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.13 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UCF

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1621.6 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.11 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Utah

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1518.0 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.23 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1547.7 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.78 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference