Big South Update: Week 9

Big South Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1439.9 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.46 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 2-15 | Elo: 1358.7 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.17 (ranked 361 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

High Point

Record: 14-3 | Elo: 1631.5 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.98 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Longwood

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1475.5 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.71 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Presbyterian

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1413.2 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.33 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Radford

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1478.2 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.00 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UNC Asheville

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1482.2 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.77 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

USC Upstate

Record: 8-9 | Elo: 1360.0 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.94 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Winthrop

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1516.9 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.31 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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