Big West Update: Week 9

Big West Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 7-9 | Elo: 1423.4 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.92 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 6-10 | Elo: 1369.1 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.75 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

CSU Northridge

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1525.3 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.55 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Cal Poly

Record: 6-10 | Elo: 1415.8 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.02 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1513.1 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.45 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1369.5 (ranked 334 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.86 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1482.4 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.89 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC Irvine

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1643.7 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.24 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UC Riverside

Record: 6-9 | Elo: 1502.1 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.94 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UC San Diego

Record: 12-3 | Elo: 1646.3 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.45 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCSB

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1512.1 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.27 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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