Southland Update: Week 9

Southland Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1352.4 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.12 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1434.3 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.48 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Points per Poss (Opp Points per Possession): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Lamar

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1483.1 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.64 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

McNeese

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1641.6 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.95 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

New Orleans

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1330.5 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.40 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Nicholls

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1501.8 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.42 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1411.8 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.38 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SE Louisiana

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1426.3 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.37 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1529.3 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.49 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1480.1 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.51 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 6-9 | Elo: 1357.6 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.45 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1378.4 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.39 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC
TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference

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