Southern Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 29 – January 04, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): ETSU, Furman, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel
Trending Down (Efficiency): Chattanooga, VMI

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 6-9 | Elo: 1555.7 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.79 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

ETSU

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1534.9 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.78 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Furman

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1573.9 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.16 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mercer

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1472.6 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.56 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Samford

Record: 8-7 | Elo: 1563.6 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.19 (ranked 270 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

The Citadel

Record: 3-12 | Elo: 1249.5 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.03 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UNCG

Record: 6-9 | Elo: 1496.7 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.80 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

VMI

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1372.9 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.06 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

W Carolina

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1424.2 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.16 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wofford

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1548.4 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.34 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON

TagsSOCON Southern Southern Conference