ACC Update: Week 10

ACC Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 7-9 | Elo: 1447.8 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.57 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Cal

Record: 13-4 | Elo: 1513.1 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.15 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 14-3 | Elo: 1705.9 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.31 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Duke

Record: 15-1 | Elo: 1799.2 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.80 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Florida State

Record: 7-9 | Elo: 1494.4 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.60 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Georgia Tech

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1511.0 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.99 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1636.0 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.15 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Miami

Record: 14-2 | Elo: 1540.6 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.12 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

NC State

Record: 12-5 | Elo: 1571.8 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.76 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Notre Dame

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1524.5 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.37 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pitt

Record: 7-9 | Elo: 1501.6 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.27 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SMU

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1619.3 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.28 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Stanford

Record: 13-4 | Elo: 1588.6 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.92 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1558.0 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.09 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC

Record: 14-2 | Elo: 1684.5 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.53 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UVA

Record: 14-2 | Elo: 1620.3 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.02 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Virginia Tech

Record: 13-4 | Elo: 1561.2 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.68 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1574.2 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.22 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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