Big 12 Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 05 – January 11, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Trending Down (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Houston

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 16-0 | Elo: 1758.2 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.44 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1529.1 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.27 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

BYU

Record: 15-1 | Elo: 1724.2 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.14 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1615.2 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.04 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cincinnati

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1538.8 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.63 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Colorado

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1575.3 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.99 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Houston

Record: 15-1 | Elo: 1821.9 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.01 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 16-0 | Elo: 1737.2 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.15 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1652.4 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.40 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kansas State

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1545.6 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.19 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma State

Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1592.3 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.06 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

TCU

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1575.3 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.44 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas Tech

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1700.9 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.56 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UCF

Record: 13-2 | Elo: 1619.0 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.27 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Utah

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1505.2 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.43 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1565.2 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.03 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference