Patriot League Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 05 – January 11, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Army, Boston U, Lehigh, Navy
Trending Down (Efficiency): American, Bucknell, Colgate, Holy Cross, Lafayette

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1489.8 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.39 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Army

Record: 7-10 | Elo: 1407.6 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.62 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Boston U

Record: 7-10 | Elo: 1439.3 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.55 (ranked 235 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1439.1 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.52 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Colgate

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1500.9 (ranked 187 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.79 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Holy Cross

Record: 7-10 | Elo: 1385.9 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.88 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Lafayette

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1350.5 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.46 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Lehigh

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1389.0 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.07 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1344.9 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.16 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Navy

Record: 12-5 | Elo: 1502.4 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.61 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT

TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League