ACC Update: Week 11

ACC Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1456.1 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.50 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Cal

Record: 14-5 | Elo: 1519.8 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.63 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 16-3 | Elo: 1711.9 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.73 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Duke

Record: 17-1 | Elo: 1811.3 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.98 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Florida State

Record: 7-11 | Elo: 1478.3 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.15 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia Tech

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1512.6 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.83 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1632.6 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.11 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Miami

Record: 15-3 | Elo: 1549.2 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.32 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

NC State

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1557.2 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.20 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Notre Dame

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1506.0 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.22 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pitt

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1504.9 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.07 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SMU

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1612.5 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.20 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 14-5 | Elo: 1591.4 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.56 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1553.1 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.81 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UNC

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1662.7 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.98 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UVA

Record: 16-2 | Elo: 1646.1 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.07 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Virginia Tech

Record: 14-5 | Elo: 1561.5 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.90 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wake Forest

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1584.6 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.82 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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