Big East Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big East enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 12 – January 18, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Providence, St John’s, Villanova
Trending Down (Efficiency): Butler, Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1535.9 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.63 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Creighton

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1633.5 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.16 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

DePaul

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1478.9 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.82 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgetown

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1480.8 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.34 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Marquette

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1542.3 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.19 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Providence

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1501.8 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.80 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Seton Hall

Record: 13-4 | Elo: 1551.5 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.74 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St John’s

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1703.9 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.99 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UConn

Record: 18-1 | Elo: 1771.1 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.25 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Villanova

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1635.6 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.43 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Xavier

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1585.4 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.00 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBE

TagsBE Big East Big East Conference