Big West Update: Week 11

Big West Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1406.0 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.59 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Blocks Per FGA (Blocks Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1388.0 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.23 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

CSU Northridge

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1518.2 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.22 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cal Poly

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1410.8 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.98 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 13-4 | Elo: 1526.1 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.97 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Long Beach St

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1402.7 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.13 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1502.7 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.31 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UC Irvine

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1623.6 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.11 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UC Riverside

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1478.8 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.29 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC San Diego

Record: 14-5 | Elo: 1628.7 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.19 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCSB

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1517.1 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.94 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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