MAAC Update: Week 11

MAAC Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1367.9 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.83 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1476.6 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.58 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Iona

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1543.6 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.38 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Manhattan

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1423.9 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.32 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Marist

Record: 12-5 | Elo: 1559.8 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.46 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Merrimack

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1561.2 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.82 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1487.1 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.72 (ranked 262 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 5-12 | Elo: 1388.0 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.50 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1567.9 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.09 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Rider

Record: 2-15 | Elo: 1385.1 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.01 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1421.7 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.00 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Siena

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1488.0 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.07 (ranked 124 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1509.5 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.80 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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