Sun Belt Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 12 – January 18, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana
Trending Down (Efficiency): Ga Southern, South Alabama, James Madison, Marshall, Southern Miss

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1506.0 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.60 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arkansas State

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1584.8 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.36 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

C. Carolina

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1433.3 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.66 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ga Southern

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1505.8 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.30 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia State

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1433.0 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.94 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

James Madison

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1517.1 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.92 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisiana

Record: 5-15 | Elo: 1403.5 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.07 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Marshall

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1532.7 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.71 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Old Dominion

Record: 6-14 | Elo: 1409.0 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.98 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Alabama

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1558.9 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.58 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1444.7 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.29 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas State

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1478.8 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.97 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Troy

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1605.4 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.73 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UL Monroe

Record: 3-16 | Elo: 1265.9 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.25 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference