SEC Update: Week 11

SEC Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1728.8 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.19 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1644.3 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.94 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1700.3 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.80 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Florida

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1749.1 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.99 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Georgia

Record: 15-3 | Elo: 1629.4 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.43 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1654.4 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.07 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

LSU

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1544.5 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.22 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miss St

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1579.5 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.40 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1594.2 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.42 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1574.5 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.75 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ole Miss

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1606.2 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.49 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1504.9 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.07 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1687.0 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.57 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1575.4 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.77 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Texas A&M

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1668.7 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.46 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 16-2 | Elo: 1654.8 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.97 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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