Southland Update: Week 11

Southland Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1343.4 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.17 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1422.4 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.63 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Points per Poss (Opp Points per Possession): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Lamar

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1497.8 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.66 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

McNeese

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1638.3 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.64 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

New Orleans

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1338.0 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.27 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Nicholls

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1497.2 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.54 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 6-12 | Elo: 1415.1 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.99 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1411.5 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.81 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 15-3 | Elo: 1540.2 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.77 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1494.6 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.97 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1341.0 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.85 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 7-11 | Elo: 1387.4 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.13 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC
TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference

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