Week 12 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
January 26, 2026Week 12: January 19 – January 26, 2026
This week saw 10 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 5.8 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 7 games decided by 5 points or less and 1 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #358 The Citadel.
These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.
#10: ECU @ North Texas
Final Score: ECU 63, North Texas 59
Date: January 23, 2026
Venue: ECU @ North Texas
Favorite: North Texas (Ranked #158)
Underdog: ECU (Ranked #277)
Predicted Score: North Texas 75.8 – 67.5 (8.3 points)
Upset Rating: 14.7
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: ECU 6-16 (38%), North Texas 4-20 (20%)
- Rebounding: ECU 39, North Texas 23 (16-rebound advantage)
- Two-point shooting: ECU 14-31 (45%), North Texas 18-43 (42%)
#9: Pitt @ Boston College
Final Score: Boston College 65, Pitt 62
Date: January 21, 2026
Venue: Pitt @ Boston College
Favorite: Pitt (Ranked #91)
Underdog: Boston College (Ranked #128)
Predicted Score: Pitt 80.1 – 70.2 (9.9 points)
Upset Rating: 15.3
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Boston College 18-33 (55%), Pitt 17-41 (41%)
#8: Hofstra @ NC A&T
Final Score: NC A&T 79, Hofstra 78
Date: January 22, 2026
Venue: Hofstra @ NC A&T
Favorite: Hofstra (Ranked #103)
Underdog: NC A&T (Ranked #240)
Predicted Score: Hofstra 75.5 – 67.1 (8.4 points)
Upset Rating: 15.5
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Hofstra had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 3 fouled out
- Free throws: NC A&T 26-35 (74%), Hofstra 15-20 (75%)
- Rebounding: NC A&T 39, Hofstra 25 (14-rebound advantage, 13 offensive)
- Two-point shooting: NC A&T 16-33 (48%), Hofstra 12-28 (43%)
#7: Arkansas State @ Georgia State
Final Score: Georgia State 82, Arkansas State 81
Date: January 24, 2026
Venue: Arkansas State @ Georgia State
Favorite: Arkansas State (Ranked #194)
Underdog: Georgia State (Ranked #263)
Predicted Score: Arkansas State 84.3 – 71.2 (13.2 points)
Upset Rating: 18.7
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Arkansas State had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Three-point shooting: Georgia State 12-27 (44%), Arkansas State 8-24 (33%)
- Turnovers: Arkansas State 13, Georgia State 7 (6-turnover disparity)
#6: Queens University @ West Georgia
Final Score: West Georgia 74, Queens University 66
Date: January 24, 2026
Venue: Queens University @ West Georgia
Favorite: Queens University (Ranked #188)
Underdog: West Georgia (Ranked #327)
Predicted Score: Queens University 81.5 – 71.1 (10.4 points)
Upset Rating: 19.4
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Queens University had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Two-point shooting: West Georgia 18-37 (49%), Queens University 16-40 (40%)
#5: IUPUI @ Oakland
Final Score: IUPUI 103, Oakland 85
Date: January 21, 2026
Venue: IUPUI @ Oakland
Favorite: Oakland (Ranked #168)
Underdog: IUPUI (Ranked #316)
Predicted Score: Oakland 80.3 – 70.2 (10.1 points)
Upset Rating: 19.9
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: IUPUI 34-53 (64%), Oakland 18-38 (47%)
- Rebounding: IUPUI 37, Oakland 24 (13-rebound advantage, 14 offensive)
- Three-point shooting: IUPUI 11-22 (50%), Oakland 10-22 (45%)
#4: Washington St @ San Diego
Final Score: San Diego 96, Washington St 92
Date: January 21, 2026
Venue: Washington St @ San Diego
Favorite: Washington St (Ranked #173)
Underdog: San Diego (Ranked #264)
Predicted Score: Washington St 86.0 – 71.9 (14.0 points)
Upset Rating: 22.1
Key Factors:
- Bench scoring: San Diego 43 points, Washington St 22 points (21-point advantage)
- Three-point shooting: San Diego 15-28 (54%), Washington St 9-26 (35%)
#3: Dayton @ La Salle
Final Score: La Salle 67, Dayton 64
Date: January 21, 2026
Venue: Dayton @ La Salle
Favorite: Dayton (Ranked #58)
Underdog: La Salle (Ranked #236)
Predicted Score: Dayton 82.1 – 69.6 (12.6 points)
Upset Rating: 26.2
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Dayton had 3 players with 4+ fouls
- Bench scoring: La Salle 31 points, Dayton 11 points (20-point advantage)
- Three-point shooting: La Salle 7-22 (32%), Dayton 3-23 (13%)
- Free throws: La Salle 18-28 (64%), Dayton 13-18 (72%)
#2: Utah Valley @ Southern Utah
Final Score: Southern Utah 84, Utah Valley 70
Date: January 21, 2026
Venue: Utah Valley @ Southern Utah
Favorite: Utah Valley (Ranked #135)
Underdog: Southern Utah (Ranked #329)
Predicted Score: Utah Valley 81.3 – 67.7 (13.6 points)
Upset Rating: 32.0
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Southern Utah 12-23 (52%), Utah Valley 6-26 (23%)
- Free throws: Southern Utah 16-19 (84%), Utah Valley 12-21 (57%)
- Foul trouble: Utah Valley had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Two-point shooting: Southern Utah 16-32 (50%), Utah Valley 20-44 (45%)
#1: Furman @ The Citadel
Final Score: The Citadel 77, Furman 75
Date: January 21, 2026
Venue: Furman @ The Citadel
Favorite: Furman (Ranked #186)
Underdog: The Citadel (Ranked #358)
Predicted Score: Furman 83.0 – 64.0 (19.0 points)
Upset Rating: 39.7
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Furman had 3 players with 4+ fouls
- Free throws: The Citadel 23-30 (77%), Furman 13-16 (81%)
- Two-point shooting: The Citadel 18-29 (62%), Furman 22-36 (61%)
- Three-point shooting: The Citadel 6-28 (21%), Furman 6-29 (21%)
Week 12 Summary
Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10
College Basketball Upsets Highlight Narrow Margins and Surprising Wins
The past week has seen its fair share of upsets in college basketball, with a total of 10 teams defying expectations. The average margin of victory was a mere 5.8 points, indicating that many games were decided by a relatively small number of points.
Close contests dominated the narrative, with an astonishing seven games being decided by five points or less. This trend suggests that the parity in college basketball is at an all-time high. On the other hand, there was only one blowout win, where a team won by 15 points or more. This imbalance highlights the unpredictability of college basketball.
The lowest-ranked team to secure a victory was #358 The Citadel, who edged out #186 Furman with a slim margin of just two points. This result is a testament to the competitiveness of college basketball at all levels. Other notable upsets include several games that were decided by narrow margins.
To quantify the surprise in each game, we used the Upset Rating metric, which measures the degree of surprise based on the difference between the teams’ pre-game rankings and their performance on the court. The highest rated upset was #358 The Citadel’s win over #186 Furman, with an Upset Rating of 39.7. This indicates that this particular outcome was one of the most unexpected.
The average Upset Rating for all 10 upsets is a respectable 21.2, suggesting that these games were indeed surprising but not entirely unexpected. The data suggests that while there are still some dominant teams in college basketball, parity and unpredictability are reigning supreme.
Ultimately, this week’s upsets have shown that even the most seemingly insurmountable gaps can be bridged with determination and good fortune. As we move forward into the season, it will be fascinating to see if these trends continue to play out.
