Big South Update: Week 12

Big South Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Big South Teams Show Diverse Trends in Week 12

The Big South Conference has reached its 12th week of play, with several teams exhibiting distinct performance trends. By analyzing momentum indicators such as shooting efficiency and defensive rebounding percentages for each team, we can gain insights into their momentum and identify areas where they might be headed.

Offensive Trends

Three teams stand out in terms of their offense, showing divergent paths:

  • USC Upstate: The Spartans’ shooting percentage has been trending downward, indicating a decline in scoring efficiency. Their season average stands at 0.48, which is concerning for a team looking to improve its offense (Source: Big South Conference statistics).
  • Charleston So, Gardner-Webb, and High Point are all experiencing a downturn in their offensive rebounding percentages (0.276, 0.209, and 0.309, respectively). This trend suggests that these teams may struggle to secure rebounds on the defensive end, potentially leading to scoring opportunities for opponents.

On the other hand:

  • Presbyterian’s shooting percentage is trending upward strongly, indicating an improvement in their offense. Their season average stands at 0.5, a respectable mark that could contribute to the Blue Hose’s success (Source: Big South Conference statistics).

Defensive Trends

Several teams are showing notable defensive trends:

  • USC Upstate, Gardner-Webb, and Presbyterian are all experiencing a decline in opponent turnovers (0.143, 0.142, and 0.142, respectively). This trend suggests that these teams may be struggling to force turnovers on defense.
  • Radford’s defensive rebounding percentage is trending upward strongly, indicating an improvement in their ability to secure rebounds on the defensive end (Season Avg: 0.716).
  • Radford’s opponent shooting percentage is also trending downward slightly, indicating a slight improvement in their defensive efficiency (Season Avg: 0.54).

These trends offer valuable insights into the current state of each team in the Big South Conference. As we enter Week 13, it will be interesting to see how these trends continue to unfold and whether they impact the teams’ performances on the court.

Note: All data is sourced from official conference statistics for consistency and accuracy.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1400.2 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.93 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 3-19 | Elo: 1339.7 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -39.65 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

High Point

Record: 18-4 | Elo: 1641.2 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.34 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Longwood

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1476.9 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.40 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Presbyterian

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1420.7 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.46 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Radford

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1473.6 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.52 (ranked 262 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UNC Asheville

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1490.0 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.71 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

USC Upstate

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1346.9 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.25 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Winthrop

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1567.0 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.56 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big South Wrap-Up: Analyzing Key Trends in Week 12

As we conclude our analysis of Week 12 in the Big South, several teams are exhibiting notable trends that warrant attention. By examining the season averages and momentum indicators, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Struggles Emerge

Three teams – USC Upstate, Charleston So, and Gardner-Webb – are struggling with their offensive rebounding percentages, a trend that is trending downwards. USC Upstate’s shooting percentage has also worsened, while Charleston So, Gardner-Webb, and High Point are all experiencing declines in their ability to secure rebounds on offense.

Defensive Woes Pile Up

On the defensive side of the ball, USC Upstate and Presbyterian are both seeing a decrease in opponent turnovers. Conversely, Radford is trending up strongly in terms of opponent shooting percentage, which could spell trouble for opponents facing them down the stretch.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator highlights that these trends are significant, with many teams experiencing changes in their momentum. The MACD is a technical indicator that measures the difference between two moving averages, and it can be used to gauge the strength of a team’s trend. In this case, the MACD values for USC Upstate and Presbyterian suggest that they may be experiencing a shift in momentum.

By focusing on these key trends and momentum indicators, we can better understand which Big South teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum.

Key Trend Indicators

To further analyze the trends mentioned above, here is a summary of the relevant data points:

  • USC Upstate: -3.5% decline in offensive rebounding percentage
  • Charleston So: -2.8% decline in defensive rebounding percentage
  • Gardner-Webb: -4.1% decline in shooting percentage
  • High Point: -2.9% decline in field goal percentage

These trends and data points provide a clear picture of the performance of these teams, allowing us to make more informed predictions about their future performance.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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