MAAC Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

MAAC Mid-Season Analysis: Trends to Watch

As we enter Week 12 of the MAAC season, several trends are emerging that will shape the conference’s second half. This analysis utilizes momentum analysis to identify areas where teams stand out and where they’re headed.

Offensive Trends to Monitor

Canisius: Shooting accuracy has been trending down strongly this season (Season Avg: 0.46). Despite a strong base score, worsening performance indicates the team’s shooting woes are intensifying.
Fairfield: The team’s off-rebounding percentage is improving, with a notable uptrend in recent weeks (Season Avg: 0.33). This upward momentum suggests Fairfield is asserting itself on the glass.
Iona and Manhattan, both struggling to maintain shooting accuracy (Season Averages: 0.47 for Manhattan), are trending down strongly. These declines may impact their scoring capabilities moving forward.

Defensive Trends Worth Watching

Canisius: The team’s ability to force turnovers is improving, with a significant uptrend in recent weeks (Season Avg: 0.15). This development could become a key factor in the team’s success.
Iona: With an emphasis on protecting the three-point line, Iona’s trend is down strongly regarding opponent shooting, suggesting an improvement in defense.
Quinnipiac: The team’s defensive rebounding percentage is improving significantly (Season Avg: 0.69). This increase in grabbing boards could give them a crucial edge on both ends of the court.

The MAAC enters this critical period with several key trends to observe, primarily centered around teams building upon strengths and facing challenges that may impact their season trajectory.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Fairfield, Marist, Niagara, St Peter’s, Siena
Trending Down (Efficiency): Canisius, Iona, Manhattan, Quinnipiac, Rider

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1357.8 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.21 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1479.2 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.37 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Iona

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1548.0 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.91 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1415.6 (ranked 285 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.06 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Marist

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1546.8 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.34 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Merrimack

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1571.7 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.52 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1490.9 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.82 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 5-15 | Elo: 1367.4 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.63 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1574.1 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.24 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Rider

Record: 2-17 | Elo: 1368.8 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.89 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1444.6 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.74 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Siena

Record: 14-7 | Elo: 1503.5 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.15 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1511.6 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.64 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

MAAC Teams Exhibit Divergent Performance Trends in Week 12 Analysis

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) season continues to showcase varied performances among its teams, as analyzed through key offensive and defensive trends.

On offense, Canisius’ shooting percentage has declined, dropping below its season average of 0.46, coinciding with a negative momentum indicator for the Shooting Efficiency Momentum Indicator (SEM). Similarly, Manhattan’s shooting performance has worsened, trending down from its season average of 0.47.

In contrast, Fairfield has improved its offense by increasing its offensive rebounding percentage to above its season average of 0.334. Iona, however, saw a decline in its rebounding performance, resulting in a negative momentum indicator for the Rebounding Efficiency Momentum Indicator (REM).

On the defensive side, Canisius and Iona are demonstrating contrasting trends. While Canisius is improving its ability to force turnovers, trending up from its season average of 0.149, Iona’s defense has become weaker against shooting, with a decreasing trend in opponent shooting percentage.

Quinnipiac stands out for its strong defensive performances on two fronts: limiting opponents’ shooting and rebounding at an above-average rate. Its opponent shooting percentage is trending upward, albeit negatively, and its defensive rebounding percentage has improved significantly from the season average of 0.688.

These trends will be crucial in determining which MAAC teams are building momentum and which may be experiencing unsustainable performances.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC

TagsMAAC Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference