Mid-American Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Mid-American Conference Week 12 Analysis

As the Mid-American Conference enters its final stretch of the regular season, teams are exhibiting diverse performance trends. Using Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators to analyze these patterns, we can gain valuable insights into each team’s trajectory.

For those unfamiliar with MACD, it is a momentum indicator that measures the difference between two moving averages of a security’s price or performance data. In this context, MACD is used to identify trends and potential turning points in team performance.

Offensive Trends

Ball State stands out with two notable trends. Firstly, their turnovers have decreased, indicating an improvement in ball control and possession management. This is a strong trend, suggesting the Cardinals are getting more efficient with the rock. Conversely, their off-rebound percentage has also declined, which could be a concerning sign for their ability to capitalize on defensive lapses.

Defensive Trends

On the defensive side of the ball, Central Michigan’s opponent turnovers have been trending downwards strongly, which may be cause for concern as they struggle to force opponents into mistakes.

Improvement on the Horizon

Miami (OH) is trending up strongly in shooting percentage, suggesting they may be finding their rhythm from beyond the arc. The Northern Illinois Huskies are making strides on defense with an upward trend in defensive rebounding percentage. This could pay dividends for them as they look to lock down opponents and secure key stops.

Worsening Trends

Central Michigan’s off-rebound percentage has declined, which may be a concern for their ability to secure second-chance opportunities. Ohio’s and Toledo’s Defensive rebounding percentages have both seen a downward trend. This could indicate struggles for them to secure key rebounds and protect against opponents’ second-chance opportunities.

By examining these MACD trends, we can gain a deeper understanding of which teams are trending upwards or downwards in Week 12 of the Mid-American Conference season.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Miami (OH)
Trending Down (Efficiency): Cent Michigan, E Michigan, Kent State, N Illinois, Ohio

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1668.9 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.30 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Ball State

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1401.5 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.34 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Bowling Green

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1490.5 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.18 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1432.6 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.76 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cent Michigan

Record: 5-15 | Elo: 1382.3 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.84 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

E Michigan

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1446.3 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.48 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kent State

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1607.7 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.76 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Miami (OH)

Record: 20-0 | Elo: 1663.3 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.82 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

N Illinois

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1328.9 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.31 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Ohio

Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1495.4 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.75 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Toledo

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1530.6 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.43 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UMass

Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1474.2 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.65 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

W Michigan

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1412.5 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.78 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Mid-American Conference Week 12 Analysis

As we conclude our analysis of the Mid-American Conference for Week 12, several key trends emerge in both offense and defense.

On the offensive side, Ball State’s turnover trend stands out. With a season average of 0.141 turnovers per game and trending down strongly, it indicates that the team is improving its ball handling skills. Conversely, Ball State’s off-rebound percentage has seen a decline, suggesting difficulties in securing second-chance opportunities.

Meanwhile, Central Michigan’s off-rebound percentage has also worsened significantly, highlighting issues with protecting the paint.

In terms of defense, both Central Michigan and Kent State have struggled with forcing turnovers from their opponents, as indicated by their downward trending indicators. However, Northern Illinois’ defensive rebounding percentage trend is noteworthy – it’s strongly trending upward, suggesting an increased ability to secure rebounds on the defensive end.

Ohio has seen its defensive rebounding percentage decline strongly, potentially exposing vulnerabilities in securing crucial board play.

Key Takeaways:

Ball State’s reduced turnover rate suggests improved ball handling skills.
Central Michigan and Kent State face challenges in forcing turnovers from their opponents.
Northern Illinois’ improvement in defensive rebounding is a positive trend for the team.
Ohio’s decline in defensive rebounding percentage indicates potential vulnerabilities.

These trends will be crucial to monitor as the Mid-American teams continue their season, and we’ll provide an update on these developments next week.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC

TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference