Southland Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Southland Conference Teams Show Diverse Trends Ahead of Week 12

As we enter Week 12 in the Southland conference, our analysis of MACD indicators reveals distinct trends among teams, providing insight into their current form and potential future performance.

For context, MACD stands for magnitude (a momentum indicator), which measures the strength and direction of a team’s trend. A positive value indicates an upward trend, while a negative value suggests a downward trend.

Houston Baptist’s Shooting Woes Continue to Improve

One team that stands out is Houston Baptist, which has seen an upward trend in shooting average. With a season average of 0.52, the improvement suggests a strengthening offense for the team. However, this progress comes alongside a concerning uptick in turnovers, indicating potential issues on both ends of the court.

McNeese and Incarnate Word Face Shooting Slumps

In contrast, McNeese and Incarnate Word have experienced a decline in shooting average, with 0.52 for McNeese and 0.49 for Incarnate Word. These downturns indicate a struggling offense for both teams, which may impact their overall performance.

McNeese’s Defense Shines

On the defensive side, McNeese has shown significant improvement, with an upward trend in opponent shooting average. This indicates that McNeese is becoming more effective at containing opponents’ scoring.

New Orleans’ Defensive Fortunes Fluctuate

Meanwhile, New Orleans exhibits contrasting trends on both ends of the court. While its defense has improved by limiting opponent shooting, it has also seen a decline in preventing turnovers, suggesting room for improvement on this front.

The diverse trend patterns among Southland teams heading into Week 12 highlight the complexities and nuances of college basketball performance. As we move forward, these indicators will provide valuable insights into each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, New Orleans, Northwestern St, Texas A&M-CC, Lamar
Trending Down (Efficiency): Incarnate Word, McNeese, Nicholls, SE Louisiana

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1341.0 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.98 (ranked 336 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Incarnate Word

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1397.0 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.90 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Lamar

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1475.1 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.15 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

McNeese

Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1648.9 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.61 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

New Orleans

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1347.9 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.23 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Nicholls

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1476.1 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.83 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1405.9 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.69 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 6-14 | Elo: 1413.2 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.92 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 17-3 | Elo: 1562.8 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.93 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1496.5 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.63 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1355.8 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.29 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1406.9 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.24 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southland Conference Teams Show Varied Momentum in Week 12

As the Southland conference continues its season, we’ve analyzed key trends to determine which teams are genuinely improving and which are experiencing unsustainable momentum.

For the Houston Baptist Huskies, two notable trends stand out. Their shooting percentage has seen a significant improvement (Season Avg: 0.52), indicating a more efficient offense. Conversely, their turnover rate is worsening (Season Avg: 0.179), making them unpredictable opponents.

Meanwhile, the Incarnate Word Cardinals have seen their shooting percentage decline (Season Avg: 0.49), hinting at a less effective offense. Additionally, they’re struggling with defensive rebounding (Season Avg: 0.295), which could lead to difficulties in maintaining leads.

On the defensive side, Houston Baptist and McNeese have both shown vulnerability as their opponents’ shooting percentages have increased. However, McNeese has also made strides in defensive rebounding (Season Avg: 0.679), indicating a potential advantage on the boards.

New Orleans stands out with its improved performance against opposing offenses, as their opponents’ shooting percentages have decreased (Season Avg: 0.5). This defensive solidity may be a key factor in their success moving forward.

The MACD momentum indicator, which measures a team’s trend based on recent wins and losses, reveals that McNeese has experienced the most sustained improvement over the past four weeks, followed closely by New Orleans. In contrast, Incarnate Word has seen a decline in their momentum, suggesting they may struggle to maintain their performance.

As we move into Week 13, these trends will become even more pronounced. Stay tuned for our next analysis to see how these trends continue to unfold.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference